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Prediction of All-Cause Dementia

Prediction of All-Cause Dementia Using Neuropsychological Tests Within 10 and 5 years of Diagnosis in a Community-Based Sample

About This Study

In previous studies, neuropsychological measures of delayed recall have been identified as one of the most significant prognostic indicators for Alzheimer’s disease (AD), in non-demented participants free of other neurological conditions.  However, less is known about the long-term prediction of dementia risk in elderly patients who present with a variety of conditions, including stroke, substance abuse, or psychiatric conditions.

Our purpose was to determine whether neuropsychological measures additional to delayed recall tests would enhance the long-term prediction of all-cause dementia in a mixed group of participants without dementia, which included those who were healthy as well as those with a history of a medical condition likely to affect the brain. Indeed, neuropsychological tests can accurately predict progression to all-cause dementia within 10 years of diagnosis.

Using This Calculator

The predicted probability of incident dementia may be calculated for either a 5 year period or 10 year period before diagnosis. We have developed two different calculators, one for the 5 year prediction and one for the 10 year prediction. Both calculators are based on regression formulae.

 

Here is how to proceed:

1. Ensure that it is appropriate that your patient be evaluated with this procedure. Your patient is appropriate if:

  • Not suffering from a dementing illness (based on the patient's history, physical examination and laboratory work-up for dementia)
  • 65 years of age and older
  • Not developmentally delayed
  • Not suffering from delirium
  • Not blind or deaf
  • Fluent in English

2. Calculating 10 year prediction of all-cause dementia

Administer the following two tests. These tests are obtained by appropriately licensed health care providers from the test developers.

Calculating 5 year prediction of all-cause dementia

Administer the following four tests. These tests are obtained by appropriately licensed health care providers from the test developers.

3. Enter your patient's scores and calculate their predicted probability of developing dementia:

  • The scores for the five year test battery are entered here.
  • The scores for the ten year test battery are entered here.

The percentage score that you will receive when you click on the "Calculate" button represents your patient's probability over either the next five years or next ten years of developing all-cause dementia.